fantapolitica
humorous look at Italian politics (bilingual)Wednesday, April 12, 2006
Still Thinking of what I should have said during my 15 seconds on the Air in Piazza SS Apostoli at 2 AM Tuesday morning. Actually my daughter Marina explained it to me.
I wish I had said I don't fear NEXUS (as I did) then sung
Avanti Pieopoli alla riscossa
Cravatta Rossa, Cravatta Rossa
Cravatta Rossa va triomferà
Cravatta Rossa va triomferà
I coulda been a star. In fact maybe my daughter two acquaintances and I could have gotten a chorus going every time the projections appeared.
Recall based on partial returns there were two forecasts one by a berlusconi friendly firm NEXUS which predicted Berlusconi would win and one by a guy named Piepoli who appeared on the relatively unbiased Murdoch owned sky TV and predicted Prodi would win.
NEXUS had the contract to provide predictions on Berlusconi controlled Italian public TV. The center left Vjays switched to Murdoch TV to give their supporters something to cheer about. Piepoli's final prediction was Prodi by 0.2%, Prodi won by 0.1 % Marina told me to contact Piepoli as our song would make him happy. I said I think he is plenty happy already.
Monday, April 10, 2006
Compagni dissi che per cento mila perigli siete giunti all'occidente
a questa tanto picciola vigilia dello spoglio che è nel rimanente
non vogliate negare l'esperienza di retro del sole e di Schifani senza sorriso
non dimenticate le vostre frequenze
fatti non foste a viver come bruti ma per votare come veri coglioni.
Sunday, April 09, 2006
24 hours until polls close update
Prodi 0.25/1 Berlusconi 3.52/1
That is Prodi wins "probability" 80% Berlusconi 28.4%
betfair is not so fair taking 8.4% of money bet
Prodi/(prodi+berlusconi) = 73.8%
Saturday, April 08, 2006
Scomettiamo che
Odds on the election. Odds as quoted by online betting sites and corresponding probablity of winning. The probabilities add up to more than one, because the sites are profit making and don't offer actuarily fair odds.
Oddschecker
Romano Prodi (2/9), Silvio Berlusconi (11/4)
that is Prodi wins with "probability" 81.8% and
Berlusconi wins with "probability" 26.7 %
So betting suckers lose 8.5% of what they bet.
Correcting for house odds by dividing prodi/(prodi+berlusconi) gets prob prodi wins
75.4%
Unibet
Prodi, Romano 1.20 Berlusconi, Silvio 3.60
that is Prodi wins with "probability" 83.3%
Berlusconi wins with "probability" 27.8%
And betting suckers had better go to oddschecker because at unibet they lose 11.1% of what they bet
Probabilities corrected by dividing prodi/(prodi+berlusconi) gives prodi wins prob 75%
Looks to me like the two sites are charging the same pool of betters to different fees. Unibet explains things in Italian and seems to be charging a rather high fee for the translation.
Bestodds looks for the best odds on other sites. I think they live off of advertising. Do make it hard to beat the market though.
They have two kinds of betting with bookies and parimutual
With bookies Prodi 1/4 Berlusconi 11/4
so Prodi wins with "probability" 80% Berlusconi with "probability" 26.7%
the odds are, as promised, less unfavorable to betters than at the sites above.
The corrected probability that Prodi wins is 75 %
Parimutual they have Prodi 0.3/1 Berlusconi 3.7/1
so "probabilities" Prodi 76.92% Berlusconi 21.28% ...
hey that adds up to less than 100% so what gives ? They are both at "betfair" which seems more than fair !?!
Political betting has the same weird odds.
Saturday, March 25, 2006
This seems to be a decent site for Italian polls. That is
http://brunik.altervista.org/barometro.html
Bottom line seems to be that the fairly narrow lead for the current opposition seems to be holding. Obviously Berlusconi is claiming otherwise. He always thinks he can say it and make it so just like his buddies further west.
Thursday, March 23, 2006
The Republicans are having a little trouble finding a candidate to oppose Hillary Clinton in the New York Senate race. They are down to one who will never be a candidate for public office in Italy
NEW YORK: It looks like the GOP’s latest senate hopeful in New York exaggerated her resume. Kathleen Troia McFarland claimed that she had worked on Ronald Reagan’s Star War’s speech and was the highest-ranked woman at the Reagan Pentagon but interviews show that Reagan wrote the speech else and that two women were ahead of her at the Pentagon. [New York Times, 3/23/06]
via Americablog
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
Omigod. Blogging the post debate discussion with journalists.
Emelio Fede said that the debate was just a rehersal for the second debate and that being objective he wouldn't say Prodi won. This is huge given who Fede is*. Berlusconi was so aweful that his most abject worshipper can't deny it.
I can't quite blog in front of the TV so I left to report this. I heard Fede shouting at another journalist (I think the editor of L'Unità once organ of the Italian communist party now independent). I don't know quite what he was saying but he concluded with passionate seriousness that by claiming that Prodi had won the debate and would gain support the other journalist was inviting Jella (bad luck). Now taking superstition seriously in public is considered less absurd in Italy than in the US but it is dramatic that the only basis for hope that Fede could come up with was superstition.
To me this is a declaration of total defeat for Berlusconi. Remembering my record, I am careful not to make any predictions about elections, although I am fairly confident that the Italian election will be held on schedule.
* Fede for people in partibus infedelium: Emelio Fede is anchorman of the news program of rete 4, one of Berlusconi's 3 channels. His program is, by far, the most biased in Italy vastly exceeding those on the other Berlusconi channels. The violation of the rule on equal access in 2001 is largely due to Fede putting Berlusconi's image on the air much more than his oppenents. Berlusconi defended himself saying he can't control Fede (false) who is just crazy about Berlusconi (true). I once saw Fede "interview" Berlusconi. I have never seen someone filmed from the waist up manage to appear to be on his knees. I don't want to see that again. Fede has organised demonstrations in favor of Berlusconi (lighting a candle in a window) and covered them on his "news" show.
Fede has a personal stake in the election, because the freequencies which broadcast him were assigned to another firm years ago. The Consiglio di Stato (Italies highest administrative court) has judged that mediaset (Berlusconi's company) does not have the right to use those freequencies which belong to another firm. Obviously Fede is still on the air, because the law is not applied to Berlusconi (no one can explain how it was possible to avoid applying the final decision of the highest court). Oh also the Constitutional court has judged the law which originally authorised Fede's channel to be a violation of freedom of speech which requires a plurality of news sources. This last doesn't amount to much because the Constitutional court just orders Parliament to do something about the problem, so what matters is parliaments interpretation of the courts decision that the old law passed by parliament is unconstitutional (think of Bush's approach to the constitution in which his judgement is final).
Nothing could be more surprising than the fact that the best Fede could do was claim that Prodi had not won the debate.
Blogging The Big Italian Debite
Silvio Berlusconi and Romani Prodi are debating on Italian TV
The “moderator” is Clement Mimum (read <)
First topic: Romani Prodi wants to cut payroll taxes (this is a very important issue). He claims that electing the center left will make this possible largely because of a reduction in tax evasion. This might not sound plausible, but he is supported by the data which show surprisingly high tax receipts when the center left was in power and surprisingly low receipts when the center right was in power (later he notes that tax receipts plus receipts from the many tax amnesties under Berlusconi is lower than forecast tax receipts). He is too polite to mention that the hugest case of demonstrated tax evasion in Italy was that of Berlusconi’s firm.
Berlusconi denounces Prodi for introducing IRAP (a tax on small firms) which he claims is like a payroll tax. He also says Prodi can only reduce payroll taxes 3% not 5%. Finally Piero Fessino (head of the largest opposition party) said the reduction is to be over 5 years not one year (thanks Pieroni).
Prodi notes that Berlusconi has had 5 years to change IRAP and has not touched it. Also for some reason he discusses whether the EU will judge IRAP an allowed tax.
Berlusconi goes back to Prodi and says that today the EU declared the IRAP illegal (help from Brussels)
To Berlusconi on how is the economy going (badl) he said we focused on inflation and talks about the Euro.
Prodi notes that there has been more inflation in Italy than other Euro countries so Italy has lost competitiveness and that the center right wanted a conversion rate with the Euro 1,500 lire/euro not about 2,000 which would have destroyed Italy (true)
Berlusconi who just bragged about the inflation rate claims the government has no influence over prices.
The deficit. Prodi talks about the deficit (which is dumb because nobody cares and people don’t like the idea of dealing with it). Berlusconi claims the center left governments destroyed the Italian budget (from deficit of 10% of GNP to 3 % of GNP). This is such an obvious lie that maybe even voters will notice.
To Prodi how pay for the reduction of payroll taxes (I am reporting by topic). He notes tax evasion again.
Berlusconi on the topic said we send the guardia di finanza to check bilanci (this is amazing as his firm corrupted the guardia di finanza and in 2 of 3 levels of judgement he was found to have been actively involved) and changed the law making it almost impossible to find someone guilty of false accounting soon before being acquited on the grounds that the act was no longer a crime.
Prodi lets this pass. He has not yet mentioned Berlusconi’s crimes or his lies during the debate.
On how to pay for cutting payroll taxes, Berlusconi says they will have to cut pensions or raise contributions from the self employed (clearly he aims for the votes of the self employed)
Prodi promises not to cut pensions.
Immigrants asking for amnesty (under a Berlusconi law). Bad for Berlusconi but he gets to talk about being tough on immigrants a winning issue for him.
Public works Berlusconi brags about man public works. This is in response to a question of one stopped unfinished by the EU as always.
Prodi says unfinished public works are a pure waste of money.
Berlusconi talks about how many people are emploed in public works. He doesn’t even pretend that public works are to be useful if and when they are finished. He is asking for the votes of contractors and their employees. He doesn’t have the concept that public spending is not good in itself. He says that he inherited a terrible electic power system .
Finally Prodi confronts Berlusconi saying that how can he talk about the burden from the past after 5 years in office with a solid majority. He claims Berlusconi talks like a leader of the opposition (as in the IRAP). He says next Berlusconi will blame Garibaldi (first good line of the night)
Berlusconi says this is a total lie as they have done many things (laundry list without even titles of the bills). Since his reply to every practical question related to concerns of voters is that it is the fault of governments before 2001.
To few Women in politics ?
Bad for Berlusconi. He talks about aid to housewifes.
Prodi says he is in favor of quotas for women in electoral lists. This would kill him in the USA but is OK in Italy and required by his coalition. It must be remembered that such quotas exist already in the DS but they are not respected.
Berlusconi claims for the second time that Prodi is lying. I don’t see why Prodi doesn’t reply in kind, since Berlusconi is lying like a dog.
Somehow on the draft (eliminated by Berlusconi). Berlusconi claims that the left is is in favor of mandatory civil service which shows the left still thinks people should do be told what to do.
Prodi denies it then concedes that he does have such an idea.
Berlusconi has a point.
Prodi has not mentioned the recent decline in employment and the enormous increase in employment under the center left (which contintued at a lower rate until this year). He is not criticizing Berlusconi nor bringing up facts which help him. He is (I shudder as I type this) answering the questions. How did this man get to be the candidate of a grand coalition..
How are you going to train Italians for the 21st century.
Long speech by Prodi about this and that ending with how teachers should be treated better (read paid more).
Berlusconi first complains that the opposition has opposed. Then he talks about what great things he has done for the schools. None will be convinced.
Prodi says Berlusconi is being rude. About insults he will not speak as the list is to long. He will talk about facts. Berlusconi claimed that he made it possible to switch type of high schools. Prodi denies this. He says that technical education is not stressed enough in Italy (my daughter is taking off from studying latin to follow the debate and Prodi si totally right).
Berlusconi says Prodi has insulted him and he is polite (the weird thing is that he probably believes this). He says Prodi is the head of a weak coalition (this is true).
Conflict of interest (Berlusconi prime minister and owner of private TV).
Berlusconi says nonsense. Claims his TV is totally unbiased. This is insane. He claims that the left has worse conflicts of interests with the lega di cooperativi. Scandalously all accusations have been rejected by the courts who are against Berlusconi. This is crazy.
Prodi claims the unione is a party (false). On conflict of interest. There are rules against conflict of interest in all democratic countries. He won’t be vindictive. It is not possible to have a prime minister with personal financial interests in everything. Prodi defends the cooperatives (whose members are voters).
I can’t believe it Berlusconi has managed to get the debate about cooperatives. He complained about their favored tax treatment. Prodi notes that his majority wrote the current law.
Now in the reply Prodi notes how utterly absurd it is for Berlusconi to talk about the conflict of interest of the others. My mistake, he was saving the best and obvious point for last.
Someone asks about licences restricting competition in retail. Weirdly the journalist seems to be in favor. The center left massively liberalised this and shopkeepers elected Berlusconi.
Oddly Prodi talks about centralised wage bargaining. He is in favor of it.In fact, he wants to involve the trade unions and the organisation of large firms in making policy (as in taxes pensions ans stuff). This is leading in to saying he is strong enough and dissinterested enough to decide based on the general interest and enact his decision.
Berlusconi says only 3 of his employees are in parliament (this may be technically true but it is totally unconvincing). He only had to leave the cabinet for conflict of interest 4 times (as noted that this was a conflict considered severe by Silvio Berlusconi). On the unions, they are a part of the leftist machine. He claims a second time that 85% of strikes are political. However he has helped many firms to get back on track when they were in financial difficulties. This last point would destroy him in the USA as it would be considered a confession of gross corruption. I think Italians think it is ok.
Berlusconi has run over time so Prodi has 19 more seconds for his final statement. He generously gives it up (he’s timed his talk and doesn’t want to end with 19 seconds of silence<9.
Prodi says Confindustria should be respected more (the association of big firms). He is aiming for the endorsement of confindustria (which would be amazing and is just possible). Berlusconi mentinoed local governments. Prodi says they are burdened because of the messed up central balance (this is obvious). Berlusconi says this is nonsence, but everyone knows it is true. He says “fiscal preassure” has declined. This is mainly due to increased evasion (yay). He says correctly that the left wants to bring back the inheritance tax (why did he mention that).
? Would you assist the USA UK if they attacked Iran (worst crisis except Iraq) ?
Berlusconi excuse me I didn’t hear what country you were talking about. He really said that. This is the prime minister of Italy.
Iran must not have nuclear weapons so we have to use diplomacy more vigorously. The whole world community wants to solve this. He dodged the question.
Prodi first talks about taxes and claims that he won’t increase taxes but rather enforce the tax code and make it more fair.
On Iran. Very dangerous situation. We want peace. In some cases we must act. We will do it only with approval of the UN. He hopes for a solution. Since Iran exports oil, even sanctions would hurt Italy a lot.
He has made the answer about Iraq.
Berlusconi talks about Prodi’s new taxes. Berlusconi brings up Bertinotti (leader of the still communists) who is the reason he is prime minister and not in jail. Prodi claims that Bertinotti has promised to follow the coalizion’s program (true) and that he is a man of honor (false). On capital income they plan to cut taxes on bank accounts and raise them on bonds so small savers will pay less. He asks Berlusconi to actually read the oppostion’s program.
Berlusconi complains about the format. It was not possible for him to explain his program. He complains about the par condicio (equal access on TV which was grossly violated by his TV channels last election and which is still on the books after 5 years of his more or less absolute power).
After much blah blah about how he is not allowed to talk he says he wants a light government which will tax little and values freedom. This evidently is the program which he has not been allowed to spell out. The left are now crypto communist. The communists in the left have been defeated by history so now they are cynical . From this the need to ….
Out of time. See this is a system which doesn’t allow one to finish an explanation.
Prodi says no this is a system which guarantees equally. It is used in the USA. Berlusconi closes whining about how he was allowed no more time than Prodi (after wasting his time complaining about a law which, in general prevents him from monopolising time on the screen as he has almost monopolised control of TV channels).
Prodi we want to give hope to the young. We want to help the weak. We want a light government too. Recall Berlusconi said he wanted to cut the prime minister’s staff 10 fold. Under him it has increased. We want a society which is not based on who you know (connections etc he used a very vivid word raccomandazione which are hated and sought by all Italians).
Amazing. Berlusconi said he lost the debate. I watched Ford liberate Poland, but I have never seen anything like that. Worse, Berlusconi could not manage to behave himself and, at least pretend that he respects the idea of rule which apply to him too.
News program summary.
Prodi says he will cut payroll taxes and fight tax evasion.Berlusconi says Prodi is a front guy and that the center right has enacted more reforms than any other.
They clip starting with the time that Berlusconi talked about fighting tax evasion. The did not quote the bit about the guardia di finanza and bilanci. They give Berlusconi the last word noting ecofin has approved the Italian budget (today).
To me the main impression is of the outrageous bias of public TV making Berlusconi's utterly absurd whining even more absurd. Others might be influenced by the careful editing.
Saturday, March 11, 2006
I haven't been blogging here much, but really, how can I hope that my political fantasies reach the level of the real thing ?
Today La Repubblica reports on the Italian political spying scandal (acquacancello ?).
Agents trying to assist the reelection of the then President of Lazio Francesco Storace (ex neo fascist) broke into the electoral office of the right wing splinter candidate Alessandra Mussolini to replace pages of signatures on her ballot petition with pages with the same signatures repeated again and again.
Then they realised that this would not keep her off the ballot unless they told the election officials to check (seems that little things like 5 identical pages of signatures aren't always noticed). However, they didn't know how to manage an anonymous type.
IL TELEGRAMMA
5 marzo 17,30 Pasqua e Gallo discutono su come denunciare anonimamente le "irregolarità" della Mussolini.
P. "Hai tu una scheda non riconducibile a qualcuno? devo mandare un telegramma che deve essere anonimo"
G. "Anonimo lo posso fare anche da un bar"
P. "Però il telegramma ti addebitano il costo su una bolletta"
G. "Ma scusa se vado alla posta a farlo e non do i miei documenti?"
P. "Certo che ti chiedono i documenti, se vado da un pony express ho paura che non faccio in tempo e in ogni caso mi chiedono i documenti, porca puttana non so come fare. Tutto fatto bene tutto lavorato, tutto costruito e adesso non so come cazzo fare. E se freghi il telefonino a qualcuno?"
G. "Eh si può fare, lo frego a qualcuno".
P. "Fai sta cosa e poi glielo fai ritrovare".
G. "E' un bel casino... lettera anonima niente?"
P. "Se potevo imbustà 'na lettera avevamo risolto, ma non gli arrivava domani".
translating the key bits gives
5 marzo 17,30 Pasqua e Gallo discuss how to anonymously denounce the "iregularities" in the Mussolini ballot petition.d
P do you have a card (SIM card which identifies a cell phone) which can't be traced bac toi anyone ? I have to send a telegram which has to be anonymous.
[long discussion of various approaches which would not work]
P ... and if we stole someone's cell phone.
G. "that might work, I will steal from someone".
P. "do it and then let him find it again".
G. "what a mess ... an anonymous letter no good ?"
P. "If I could have mailed a letter we were solving it, but it wasn't arriving tomorrow".
cleaning up the grammer the last bit is
P If I could mail a letter the problem would be resolved, but it wouldn't arrive tomorrow."
Evidently the subverters of Mussolini's democratic rights don't think of doing things before the last minute.
Now they are spying on the current president Marrazzo and eager to spy on some woman whose name contains the same consonants as his wife's name (the Italian social security code begins with a bit based on the first three consonants in one's ngiven and family name."
LA MOGLIE DI MARRAZZO
22 marzo, ore 18,15. Gallo parla col maresciallo Franco Liguori (suo complice) per scovare i redditi della moglie di Piero Marrazzo (Roberta Sardoz).
F. "Ueh senti, Sardo Rosarita per me non esiste, ho provato con Sardo, con Sardi, solo con Rosa, solo con Rita, in tutti i modi possibili immaginabili, hai il codice fiscale tu per caso?"
G. "Non ce l'ho dietro, però. Comunque l'ho verificato, è corretto".
F. "Eh vedi corretto corretto, ma pure con Marrazzo, alla fine, era Pietro e non era Piero".
G. (gli detta il codice fiscale)
F. "Allora Serdoz Roberta non c'entra proprio un cazzo con quella... La data di nascita corrisponde 10.8.68".
G. "Questa è l'intestazione di un telefonino, quindi che cazzo hanno scritto... l'hanno estrapolato probabilmente hanno scritto una cosa per un'altra". Dieci minuti dopo viene intercettato un Sms del maresciallo a Gallo: "Ma non facevi prima a dirmi che era la moglie di Marrazzo?". Sms di risposta: "Non lo sapevo".
Gallo speaks with police officer Franco Liguori (his accomplice) to determine the income of Piero Marrazzo's wife(Roberta Sardoz).
F. "Ueh list, Sardo Rosarita doesn't seem to exist, I tried with Sardo, with Sardi, with just Rosa, with just Rita, in every imaginable way, do you happen to have the social security code?"
[extensive discussion]
Ten minutes later two text messages
"why didn't you tell me she was Marrazzo's wife ?"
"I didn't know."
Ouch. If you are a private eye it's not good to get caught spying. It's terrible to get caught not knowing the name of the wife of your target.
Thursday, March 02, 2006
Arwen ha dato il meglio di se stesso
Sunday, February 05, 2006
link to my other blog (just testing) here
Sunday, January 15, 2006
Jesus Christ on Trial in Viterbo
Read about it on CNN or The Volokh conspiracy or The Times of London or even The Washington Times but what happens when you search for the story in Italy's leading dalies
La Repubblica and Il Corriere della Sera. Zip zero nada. Jesus Christ is under judicial challenge right here in Italy and they don't see fit to mention it.
In fact, the top two Italian web references to the case are both from the plaintif's site.
There is also a comment by a user on a blog sponsored by La Repubblica a reference on an obscure TV site which is related to mediaset (think Fox News and multiply by ten) and La Gazzetta di Sondrio
But the so called laical media are hiding this assault on Christ from the public.
The story is simple Luigi Cascioli has denounced father Enrico Righi for abusing public credulity (Abuso di Credulita Popolare) and impersonation (Sostituzione di Persona), because Enrico Righi claims that, get this, Jesus Christ existed. An extremely unamused gup (giudice dell'udienza perliminaria) has to decide whether to indict father Righi. The udienza preliminaria is pretty much an arraignment although I suppose it could also be compared to a grand jury proceding.
The second charge seems to me to be crazy, since Righi is not claiming that he personally is Jesus Christ. The first seems quite solid as a matter of law. The law is there to make it possible to prosecute faith healers, fortune tellers and such. I think it actually is applied occasionally and many such frauds dress up their scams as christianity (Pat Robertson better check on the law before he decides to move his christian theme part to Rome now that Israel is mad at him).
The claim that Jesus Christ is a historical figure is not overwhelmingly supported by the evidence. At least Cascioli is sincerely convinced that there was no such person. Note that Righi can't get off by claiming he never said Christ is divine (which might get him in a spot of hot water with his bishop). Cascioli claims there was no such guy.
Now the burden of proof is on the extremely reluctant prosecution, but this is a preliminary hearing in which the unfortunate magistrate has to say if there is grounds for a trial.
One problem with the absence of reputable Italian language coverage is that I am not sure if this is a civil suit or (more likely) a criminal case. The headline at TGCOM
"'Gesù esiste', prete querelato Viterbo, denunciato da autore libro". Contradicts itself. "Denunciare" is to accuse someone of a crime, querelare is to sue them. I think the case is a criminal case, because it definitely concerns a reato (crime).
English translations are no help.
Now I am very embarassed that I know more about Samuel Alito's college years than I do about what is happening right now in the country where I live, but I think the news is being played up overseas for the usual laugh at Italy reasons and is understressed hear, because it makes the Italian legal system look silly.
The Italian legal system is absurd. On the one hand there are many laws which can not be enforced in a free country. I believe that Righi could denounce Casioli for blasphemy which is a crime. It is also a crime to detract from the honor of the state while in a foreign country, to vilify the President of the Repubblic and to deny the Presidents absolute lack of responsibility for any action of the cabinet (got to watch myself on that one).
Fortunately none of these cases comes to trial. This in spite of the fact that prosecutors are supposed to have no discretion at all. Si riesci a tira a campa I don't know how (hmmm how do you say that in American, in English it is muddle through).
I personally have no opinion about whether there was a historical Jesus (I have no doubt that if there were he wasn't divine). Still I applaud Cascioli, because with a few dozen crazy cases like this, parliament might establish genuine freedom of speach just to end the international humiliation.
