fantapolitica
humorous look at Italian politics (bilingual)Wednesday, April 12, 2006
Still Thinking of what I should have said during my 15 seconds on the Air in Piazza SS Apostoli at 2 AM Tuesday morning. Actually my daughter Marina explained it to me.
I wish I had said I don't fear NEXUS (as I did) then sung
Avanti Pieopoli alla riscossa
Cravatta Rossa, Cravatta Rossa
Cravatta Rossa va triomferà
Cravatta Rossa va triomferà
I coulda been a star. In fact maybe my daughter two acquaintances and I could have gotten a chorus going every time the projections appeared.
Recall based on partial returns there were two forecasts one by a berlusconi friendly firm NEXUS which predicted Berlusconi would win and one by a guy named Piepoli who appeared on the relatively unbiased Murdoch owned sky TV and predicted Prodi would win.
NEXUS had the contract to provide predictions on Berlusconi controlled Italian public TV. The center left Vjays switched to Murdoch TV to give their supporters something to cheer about. Piepoli's final prediction was Prodi by 0.2%, Prodi won by 0.1 % Marina told me to contact Piepoli as our song would make him happy. I said I think he is plenty happy already.
Monday, April 10, 2006
Compagni dissi che per cento mila perigli siete giunti all'occidente
a questa tanto picciola vigilia dello spoglio che è nel rimanente
non vogliate negare l'esperienza di retro del sole e di Schifani senza sorriso
non dimenticate le vostre frequenze
fatti non foste a viver come bruti ma per votare come veri coglioni.
Sunday, April 09, 2006
24 hours until polls close update
Prodi 0.25/1 Berlusconi 3.52/1
That is Prodi wins "probability" 80% Berlusconi 28.4%
betfair is not so fair taking 8.4% of money bet
Prodi/(prodi+berlusconi) = 73.8%
Saturday, April 08, 2006
Scomettiamo che
Odds on the election. Odds as quoted by online betting sites and corresponding probablity of winning. The probabilities add up to more than one, because the sites are profit making and don't offer actuarily fair odds.
Oddschecker
Romano Prodi (2/9), Silvio Berlusconi (11/4)
that is Prodi wins with "probability" 81.8% and
Berlusconi wins with "probability" 26.7 %
So betting suckers lose 8.5% of what they bet.
Correcting for house odds by dividing prodi/(prodi+berlusconi) gets prob prodi wins
75.4%
Unibet
Prodi, Romano 1.20 Berlusconi, Silvio 3.60
that is Prodi wins with "probability" 83.3%
Berlusconi wins with "probability" 27.8%
And betting suckers had better go to oddschecker because at unibet they lose 11.1% of what they bet
Probabilities corrected by dividing prodi/(prodi+berlusconi) gives prodi wins prob 75%
Looks to me like the two sites are charging the same pool of betters to different fees. Unibet explains things in Italian and seems to be charging a rather high fee for the translation.
Bestodds looks for the best odds on other sites. I think they live off of advertising. Do make it hard to beat the market though.
They have two kinds of betting with bookies and parimutual
With bookies Prodi 1/4 Berlusconi 11/4
so Prodi wins with "probability" 80% Berlusconi with "probability" 26.7%
the odds are, as promised, less unfavorable to betters than at the sites above.
The corrected probability that Prodi wins is 75 %
Parimutual they have Prodi 0.3/1 Berlusconi 3.7/1
so "probabilities" Prodi 76.92% Berlusconi 21.28% ...
hey that adds up to less than 100% so what gives ? They are both at "betfair" which seems more than fair !?!
Political betting has the same weird odds.
